With this seemingly interminable election finally—finally!
—reaching its merciful terminus, we decided a little contest was in order. Actually, two of them, each worth one $50 gift card to Lilly’s Pizza. In the first, you’ll guess how the presidential contest will play out; in the second, you’ll predict North Carolina’s races for president, governor, and U.S. Senate. In both cases, email your predictions to firstname.lastname@example.org or tweet them to @indyweek using the hashtag #INDYelections.
Contest 1: The Presidential Election
Predict the ultimate popular vote and electoral college margins.
Go to 270towin.com
and enter what you believe to be the final margins. Email email@example.com
or tweet us using the hashtag #INDYelections
with an image of and/or link to your final map/Electoral College split (e.g., Clinton 269, Trump 269) and your predicted popular vote results for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, to one decimal place. (Pedants: ignore for the moment the faithless elector in Washington state
.) This contest will be judged primarily on the map—the person who most accurately gets the map and electoral vote correct wins. If more than one person guesses the map correctly, the popular vote margin will serve as the tiebreaker. If more than one person correctly guesses both, the winner will be the person who emailed or tweeted their predictions first. The contest closes at 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Contest 2: North Carolina Elections
Predict the winners of North Carolina’s races for president, governor, and U.S. Senate.
Predict the popular vote results for North Carolina’s races for president, governor, and U.S. Senate, to one decimal place, and email those predictions to firstname.lastname@example.org
or tweet them at us using the hashtag #INDYelections
. The winner will be determined by the individual who most accurately predicts the margins of victory of the three winners. (Hypothetical example: Assume Trump, Cooper, and Burr win by 1 percentage point each, for a total of 3 percentage points. A person who correctly predicts the winners and guesses that Trump wins by 2, Cooper by 1.5, and Burr by 1.5 would have a total margin of 5 percentage points, so he/she would be 2 points off.) In case of a tie, the winner will be determined by who most closely predicted Trump’s and Clinton’s percentages of the popular vote in North Carolina. If there’s still a tie, the winner will be the person who emailed or tweeted their predictions first. The contest closes at 7 a.m. Tuesday.
To lay out a marker, here are my predictions:
Electoral vote: Clinton 307, Trump 229
Popular vote: Clinton 49.1, Trump 44.8, Johnson 4.2, Stein 1.5, Other 0.4
Trump 48.2, Clinton 47.5, Johnson 3.9, Other 0.4
Cooper 50.8, McCrory 48.6, Other 0.6
Burr 51.1, Ross 48.2, Other 0.7