Durham's ABC11-WTVD is out with a new Survey USA poll that suggests that McCain has opened up a sizable lead in the formerly tight race. The result: McCain is leading Obama 58 percent to 38 percent.
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
A sudden swing like this is odd, of course. Is it the Palin effect, or a statistical outlier?